A new poll from the UK-based Info and Assessment Research firm has handed Ghana’s Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, a decisive edge in the 2024 Presidential elections sweepstakes, ahead of former President John Dramani Mahama.
The poll found that should the two gentlemen secure their respective party’s nominations as expected, Vice President Bawumia would hold a steady edge over Mahama, polling 46% to the former leader’s 35%.
The poll, conducted between 27th October to 3rd November, sampled 254,759 potential voters across the 16 regions of Ghana in face-to-face polling.
Aside the support for the two major candidates, the poll also found about a fifth of the electorate (19%), plan to vote for neither candidate as they see little difference between the two and the parties they represent.
Analysis – Bawumia the NPP’s X-Factor
Ex-president Mahama, returning for his second term as President, is generally seen as the frontrunner for the 2024 elections, but this poll indicates any potential victory would not be as straightforward as assumed.
Generally, the ruling party are at a huge disadvantage in polls held after their two terms are up and the same is expected to be true for the NPP.
Yet, this poll seems to indicate that the party might still retain strong support, in the face of the ‘breaking the 8’ obstacle and also the ongoing economic crunch.
The NPP’s strong performance can only be explained through one factor – the potential choice of Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia as flagbearer.
Bawumia has always performed exceptionally well against John Dramani Mahama, harking back to their sparring sessions at the height of the 2016 general elections.
Bawumia dogged the former President, cutting him down with economic analysis and forever handing him the label ‘incompetent Mahama’.
Their battles were the stuff of legend and Bawumia managed to get under Mahama’s skin despite being the running mate and he, the flagbearer.
Evidently, given a straight choice between the two men, many Ghanaians have more confidence in Bawumia than Mahama, despite the events of the past few years.
Bawumia also happens to be the most high-profile official of the current government aside the President. In the past, the Vice President hasn’t always been so high profile, but Dr Bawumia has brought a different hustle and gravitas to the role.
He is always front and centre pushing the government message, epitomised by him walking down the gauntlet of the NDC’s historical stronghold in the Volta Region, delivering a speech highlighting the government’s achievements at the Hogbetsotso festival and receiving cheers – and boos – for his efforts.
All these has built Bawumia strong name recognition in our body politic whilst also making it evident to Ghanaians the hard work he’s putting into his position.
Among the NPP’s potential flagbearers, the Vice President holds the advantage in that he would be more readily recognisable to the engaged and casual political voter alike, which is needed to push back on the high profile Mahama himself occupies, having served four years as President.
All these reasons appear to position Bawumia favourably to go up against Mahama and make him the runaway frontrunner for the NPP nomination.
There remains a ton of time between now and 2024 and things may yet get worse in Ghana – even if it is hard to see what can be worse than this current climate.
If they do, Bawumia might be attainted further and Mahama might close the gap and overtake but as it stands – the latest poll favours the Veep and it’s not hard to see why.
Source: theGhanaianVoice.Com
